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U.S. containerized imports are expected to post another year-over-year increase in June as retailers accelerate shipments ahead of potential tariff changes and rising transportation costs, but volumes are forecast to remain below 2025 levels through much of the second half of the year, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report points to a combination of tariff uncertainty, elevated fuel costs linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, and concerns over inflation as key factors shaping import demand.
"We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that's partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty."
The projected gains come against weak comparisons from last year, when import volumes fell sharply following President Donald Trump's announcement of so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said the current import surge reflects both those favorable comparisons and efforts by retailers to get ahead of potentially higher costs.
"We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs," Hackett said.
Hackett added that the current surge is expected to continue into July, creating an earlier and more prolonged peak season rather than the traditional late-summer spike.
"After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll," he said.
According to Global Port Tracker, U.S. ports covered by the report handled 2.05 million TEU in April, down 5.1% from March and 7.3% from the same month a year earlier. The figure excludes the Port of New York and New Jersey, which had not yet reported April data.
May volumes are forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% year-over-year, while June is expected to reach 2.25 million TEU, a 14.3% increase. However, the outlook turns negative in the second half of the summer, with July projected at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% from a year earlier. August volumes are forecast to fall 8.6% year-over-year to 2.12 million TEU, followed by a 2.2% decline in September to 2.06 million TEU. October is expected to be essentially flat, rising just 0.1%.
Despite the anticipated slowdown later in the year, the May and June increases are expected to lift first-half 2026 import volumes to 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% compared to the first six months of 2025.
The report suggests retailers continue to navigate an increasingly complex trade environment marked by shifting tariff policy, geopolitical instability, and higher transportation costs. Recent disruptions tied to the conflict involving Iran have pushed fuel prices higher and added uncertainty to global supply chains, prompting some importers to accelerate shipments while consumer demand remains relatively resilient.
Global Port Tracker covers major U.S. container gateways, including Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.
Fuente: GCAPTAIN_NEWS
