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The early peak season for U.S. container imports is beginning to wind down after retailers accelerated shipments to get ahead of new tariffs and supply chain uncertainty stemming from the conflict with Iran.
Import volumes at the nation's major container ports are expected to remain elevated through August before declining for most of the remainder of 2026, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
"We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.
"One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season," Gold added. "Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers' demand for affordability and choice."
The frontloading came ahead of a significant change in U.S. trade policy in late July. Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February expired July 23, only to be followed the next day by new Section 301 tariffs of between 10% and 12.5% covering 60 economies and affecting 99% of U.S. imports, according to NRF.
The timing helped pull what historically has been a late-summer or fall shipping surge into the spring and early summer.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.23 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in June, up 13.2% from a year earlier but down 0.7% from May. The large year-over-year increase partly reflects weak comparisons with 2025, when imports fell sharply following the introduction of the so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs.
Imports totaled 12.7 million TEUs during the first half of 2026, up 1.1% from the same period last year.
The busiest month of the year may already have passed. Covered ports handled 2.24 million TEUs in May, slightly above June's total.
July volumes, which have yet to be finalized, are projected at 2.21 million TEUs, down 7.6% year over year. August is forecast at 2.22 million TEUs, down 4.2%.
From there, Global Port Tracker expects imports to gradually decline through November before a modest December rebound. September is forecast at 2.16 million TEUs, October at 2.13 million TEUs and November at 2.03 million TEUs. December imports are expected to rise slightly to 2.06 million TEUs.
Despite the decline, volumes from September onward are expected to remain above last year's levels.
"Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. "Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty."
The shifting pattern underscores how the traditional U.S. peak shipping season has become increasingly difficult to define. Importers have repeatedly moved cargo earlier in recent years in response to disruptions ranging from labor negotiations and supply chain bottlenecks to potential tariff increases and geopolitical instability.
For 2026 as a whole, Global Port Tracker expects imports at covered ports to total 25.5 million TEUs, essentially flat with last year but up 0.1%. Imports totaled 25.4 million TEUs in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.
