Houthis' Resolve in Red Sea Poses Escalating Maritime Threat

The unattributed drone attack on the Port of Damietta in Egypt is adding to fears that the war with Iran is spilling over into other parts of the Middle East.

Maritime experts say the uncertainty over whether the attack was carried out by the Houthis, Iran, both working together, or an entirely different group is adding another layer of complexity to the region.

"The uncertainty around this indicates that we are in a position where we could go from a one- to two- to three- to even more choke-point crisis very quickly," said Ian Ralby, CEO of the maritime and resource security firm IR Consilium. "When you look at the fact that Iran is still connected to the Mediterranean through the Caspian, the Volga-Don, the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, the Black Sea, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, we're looking at a potentially interesting — in the most Chinese-cursed sense — situation coming up."

Ralby warned that geopolitics, tactics and strategy are all interwoven in this war.

"I think our concern around the Suez is that this really is getting out of control because the initiators of this U.S. and Israeli war in Iran didn't really game out all the different possibilities of the enemy they were actually facing," said Ralby. "It was very, very evident to those of us who understood both Iran and the Houthis that this was an eventuality that could come into play. So the question is, what else haven't we gamed out? What else aren't we prepared for?"

Maritime analysts say it is far too early to draw conclusions about the full impact of the Houthis' attacks on Saudi-related vessels in the Red Sea.

"We can say confidently that there has been a drop in traceable transits through the Bab al-Mandeb," explained Bridgit Diakun, maritime intelligence and research director at Lloyd's List Intelligence. "Saudi Arabia is being impacted. We're seeing kind of a trickle of calls to Saudi ports with AIS on."

Diakun stressed there have also been dark port calls, along with rerouting and diversions by vessels.

"It's mostly hitting the tanker market," she said.

Bab al-Mandeb tanker transits are down 40.7% in a week-over-week comparison (July 20-26, 2026, versus July 13-19, 2026), according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Tanker transits through the Suez Canal were down 6% during the same period.

Maritime security experts say the focus on the Houthis is being misplaced. Political rhetoric has emphasized the group's military capabilities, but Ralby argues it is the Houthis' determination to disrupt trade through the Red Sea that deserves greater attention.

"Right now, their will is to choke off maritime commerce and oil commerce for one of the largest producers of oil in the world (Saudi Arabia)," said Ralby. "We can't think that the Houthis, because of their missile capability, hypersonic missile capability, or even their massive drone capability, were diminished by U.S. and Israeli strikes to the point that they would now be unable to attack ships. We need to remember that if you want to disrupt maritime commerce, you don't need much."

Ralby said the Houthis learned during their Red Sea campaign that lower-cost, less sophisticated technology could have a greater impact in the maritime domain and be more effective at sinking ships than firing missiles.

"The missiles got international attention," said Ralby. "The sinking of a ship had much greater maritime impact, and that's where we need to be concerned because it depends more on their will and intent than it does on their technological capability or military capability."

Ralby said that even after the extensive U.S. campaign to degrade the group's capabilities, the Houthis have rebuilt their stockpiles.

"They have a lot more in storage and stock now than they did a year ago," he said. "So we need to be careful not to assume that we are still at the same point where the Houthis were at the end of the U.S. bombing campaign in the spring of 2025. They do have assets, and they could deploy them. We are now seeing an unbelievable, unusual degree of restraint from the Houthis."

Another factor to consider in the Houthis' renewed attacks on maritime shipping, according to Ralby, is the group's alliance strategy.

"They have worked to develop relationships with some of the groups that became enamored with them over the course of their attacks on the Red Sea in '23, '24 and '25, and that includes al-Shabaab, other armed groups in the Horn of Africa, and criminal groups across the region that have been involved in arms smuggling and piracy in the past," he said.

Ralby said the growing number of piracy incidents off the coasts of Yemen and Somalia is being overshadowed by larger geopolitical events.

"Sometimes the most impactful events are not the most spectacular," he explained. "We are not really paying much attention to piracy incidents because so much else is going on. The Houthis may be trying out a sort of proxy scheme where their own allies are the ones carrying the war for them while they get ready for something bigger."

Ralby said that "something bigger" could include a broader effort to shut down the Red Sea.

"This could get really ugly really fast," he said.