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(Bloomberg) — A US-Iran deal intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within days has been met with caution by shipowners and traders, with many saying they would need more details in order to assess whether safe transits are possible after months of false starts.
A vital conduit for global oil and gas, Hormuz has been at the heart of the conflict from the first days of strikes on Iran, and the urgent need to resume traffic has been a vital theme in months of on-off peace discussions. The disruption has upended the global energy trade, all but cutting off some of the world's top producers and forcing major players to resort to "dark" transits.
News of a long-awaited agreement between the US and Iran and the prospect of ending a double blockade drove Brent oil futures down almost 5%. But those ferrying crude and gas around the world are still questioning what exactly a reopening — which US President Donald Trump has said will come on Friday — could mean in practice.
Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency said transits will be free for 60 days, after which Tehran will start charging. Future administration of "navigation services" in the strait will be determined by Iran and Oman, it reported. BIMCO, the world's top trade group for shipowners, cautioned that key details still need clarification before transit can be considered safe.
"From the bridge and the engine room where we're sitting, right now it looks very different to what the headlines may say," said Angad Banga, chief executive officer of maritime conglomerate The Caravel Group, which owns Fleet Management Limited, one of the world's largest ship management companies. It presently has several crews trapped in the Persian Gulf. "We've seen positive signals before, and I think ultimately what matters is what holds."
Major Japanese shipping companies, among the first ones to respond to the deal, cautioned that safe navigation would only be possible after details are finalized. Mitsui OSK Lines said close coordination with governments and insurance firms would be essential before it could send ships through the strait again, while Nippon Yusen KK said a normalization of traffic hinges on what's being laid out in the agreement.
There was little activity in the strait in the hours after the news, with the exception of one liquefied natural gas tanker, Disha, testing the waters as it heads into the eastern arm of Hormuz, toward the Gulf of Oman.
"Shipowners are on a risk spectrum — the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese are less open to high risk, while the Greeks have a different appetite — so we may see some people gearing up," said Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd. "But by and large the rest of the market is still seeking more details and assurance before proceeding."
Traffic through the strait has slowed dramatically since US and Israeli strikes began at the end of February, sinking to a fraction of a pre-war average of about 135 transits daily. Some oil and gas producers have found workarounds to send tankers through, at times with support from the US or through government-to-government negotiations, but total crossings remain way down.
Out of the hundreds of vessels idling in the Persian Gulf, nearly 300 are loaded and waiting to cross at a moment's notice — with around the same number empty on the other side in the Gulf of Oman, waiting to head back to major export terminals, according to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at commodity intelligence firm Kpler. Around 250 are ballasting in the Persian Gulf, primed to also start picking up cargoes for any potential outbound journeys.
That exact count of observed vessels may change as ships that have turned off their transponders restart transmission. Electronic interference that has complicated tracking in the area over the past month should also ease.
In theory, even a temporary peace deal should release millions of barrels of oil that have been trapped for months in the Persian Gulf. In practice, there will still be a long list of impediments — including prosaic problems like the need to remove barnacles from ship hulls, and to ensure crews are in position and prepared to sail.
For now, though, security, remains the primary concern, as purported deals over the past months have ended with Iranian forces firing at ships or seizing vessels.
Fars reported that once the 60 days of free transits are over, Iran will begin charging for safety, navigation, environmental and insurance services.
BIMCO, the world's largest direct-membership shipping trade group, said key details of the agreement still need to be clarified before navigation can be considered safe.
"Credible assurances from both sides of the conflict must be given before traffic can resume fully to pre-conflict levels," Jakob Larsen, the organization's chief safety and security officer, said in a statement. He added that mine clearance remained a critical issue and that the large number of vessels trapped in the Gulf meant departures would need to be carefully coordinated.
Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said security is front of mind for all ships and companies operating in the area.
"The maritime industry understands that. Captains understand it. Crews understand it," he said. "They know that a single miscalculation, a single strike, or a single political decision can inject new friction into the situation and once again place their lives at risk."
Managing a vastly increased flow of traffic through the waterway will be another headache, even once other worries ease.
The strait's narrow width — only 24 miles (39 kilometers) wide at its tightest point, with shipping lanes in each direction merely two miles wide — raises the risks of vessels colliding if they begin rushing for the exit. The picture is complicated by the fact that electronic interference and irregular use of transponders may misrepresent true locations.
"During extreme traffic congestion periods, collision and grounding risks may materially increase. Both dimensions must be appropriately addressed in the pre-transit planning," a guidance document jointly published by major industry groups such as BIMCO, Intertanko and the International Chamber of Shipping last month.
"Do not rely on AIS," it added, referring to the automatic identification system that ships often use for automatic tracking of vessels' locations.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
Fuente: GCAPTAIN_NEWS
