Analysis

Hormuz Closure Could Send Oil to $200 and Trigger Global Recession, Wood Mackenzie Warns

Wood Mackenzie warns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the most severe global energy supply shock in decades, with Brent crude potentially approaching $200 per barrel by end of 2026 in a worst-case scenario. The analysis outlines three scenarios: quick peace with oil falling to $80 by year-end, a summer settlement triggering shallow recession, or extended disruption causing global contraction of 0.4% and regional GDP shrinkage of 10.7% in the Middle East. More than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf crude and 80 million tonnes per year of LNG supply remain inaccessible.