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By Nicholas Lua and Mary Hui (Bloomberg) – Global trade faces a fresh headache on top of the months-long snarls in the Middle East that have roiled flows, with the Panama Canal moving to curtail some vessel-booking slots because of water-supply challenges.
The Panama Canal Authority will temporarily suspend part of the booking system for ships seeking to use the waterway linking the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, according to shipping agent Norton Lilly. Among the reasons is that a weather-altering El Niño may hit, curbing vital water flows, it said.
The tighter access to the Panama conduit comes as other global chokepoints have faced disruptions, slowing trade and boosting costs. In the Middle East, the Iran-US war has brought traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to a near-halt after vessel attacks. Elsewhere, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militant group has threatened shipping via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea.
The Panama Canal Authority didn't immediately respond to calls and emails seeking comment outside working hours.
Daily auctions in so-called period three for the canal's Panamax-class locks will be halted from July 25 until further notice given present and projected water levels at Gatun Lake, Norton Lilly said in a notice on its website. As a result, daily booking capacity will be cut from 36 to 34 vessels, it said.
The suspension is being introduced based on current hydrological conditions, as well as the potential development of an El Niño weather pattern, it said, citing the authority. Previous El Niños have dried up freshwater lakes supplying the canal, causing the authority to impose daily transit restrictions.
The Panama suspension would mean fewer opportunities to get slots; more competition for openings in periods one and two; and potentially "greater challenges" for ships without confirmed bookings, Norton Lilly said.
Gatun Lake, which sits above the waterway and feeds the locks below, currently has a depth of 84.6 feet (25.8 meters), tracking just below the five-year July average of 84.7 feet, according to the Panama Canal Authority. Water levels are projected to keep declining in the coming months, falling to 83.8 feet by late September, 1.4 feet below the five-year average.
During the last El Niño of 2023-2024, monthly vessel traffic through the canal plunged from a pre-El Niño peak of 1,523 in December 2022 to a low of 1,054 in February 2024, according to data provided by Weathernews Inc.
In recent months, forecasters have warned that this year's El Niño may be particularly severe, raising the prospect of significant disruption. Earlier this month, the US Climate Prediction Center said the pattern had continued to build and would likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years.
El Niños typically lead to drier-than-normal conditions over Central America. Panama has already seen significantly below-average rainfall over the past seven weeks, according to the US Climate Prediction Center.
That dryness is expected to persist: the latest seasonal outlooks from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate there is at least a 70% chance that the area around the Panama Canal will see rainfall levels in the bottom third of historical norms from August through November.
In June, the Panama Canal Authority said it was stepping up efforts to brace for El Niño-fueled extremes by drafting a plan that avoided limiting the type of vessel restrictions that hampered shipping three years ago.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
