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Danish shipping giant D/S NORDEN says the ongoing Persian Gulf conflict and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz are having sharply different effects across global shipping markets, hammering dry cargo operations while sending tanker earnings soaring.
In its first-quarter 2026 interim report released Tuesday, NORDEN said the closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz directly impacted earnings through stranded vessels, surging bunker costs, and rapidly shifting trade patterns.
"Losses in Dry cargo were driven by regional positioning as well as the Persian Gulf conflict, which directly impacted earnings through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and one-off regional bunker premiums," the company said.
The company said six dry cargo vessels remain stuck inside the Persian Gulf, contributing to sharply higher operational and insurance costs. NORDEN said it now assumes those costs could continue through the end of 2026, adding an estimated $30 million in additional expenses to its dry cargo business this year.
Dry cargo EBIT plunged to a loss of $45 million in the first quarter, compared to a $17.6 million profit during the same period last year.
The company described a market increasingly distorted by the conflict. While Middle East cargo volumes declined as the crisis intensified, vessels trapped in the Gulf effectively tightened global shipping supply, partially offsetting weaker demand.
"In the weeks following the closure of the Strait, this led to some dislocation in freight rates, as market participants adjusted to higher fuel costs and evolving trading patterns," the report said.
But while dry bulk operators struggled, tanker markets moved sharply in the opposite direction.
NORDEN said tanker performance strengthened dramatically as disruption to oil flows triggered a "two-tier market" following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the company, tanker demand east of Suez weakened as crude exports collapsed and several countries imposed export restrictions, but rates in Atlantic Basin markets surged as Western refineries became the primary suppliers of petroleum products to the rest of the world.
The company said it repositioned vessels toward the Atlantic Basin and U.S. Gulf to capitalize on the disruption-driven arbitrage opportunities.
The strategy paid off. Tanker EBIT jumped 139% year-over-year to $47.3 million during the quarter.
Still, NORDEN warned that prolonged disruption to Hormuz traffic could eventually reverse some of the tanker market gains.
The company said continued closure of the Strait would ultimately pressure tanker rates lower as more vessels reposition from the East while reduced oil exports begin to weigh on overall demand. High oil prices could also weaken broader economic growth and oil consumption, the company warned.
However, NORDEN said a future normalization of Hormuz traffic could trigger a significant global restocking cycle that would support tanker demand once refineries in the East resume operations.
"With the current Persian Gulf conflict, the near-term outlook remains highly uncertain," CEO Jan Rindbo said in the report.
Fuente: GCAPTAIN_NEWS
