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Ukraine has reduced its grain export forecast for the July-June 2026/2027 season by up to 12% compared to a previous projection, its Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi told Reuters, citing Russian attacks on seaports as the reason.
"We are currently aiming for between 38 and 40 million tons," Vysotskyi said in the first official forecast for shipments since the escalation of Russian attacks in late July effectively paralyzed shipments from the terminals of the Odesa port area, which are vital for Ukraine and the global agricultural market.
The ministry had projected exports of 43 million tons for this season before the escalation. In recent weeks, Russia has almost daily attacked Ukrainian Black Sea ports, export terminals, and vessels entering and leaving them.
The lower grain export forecast underscores the damage the attacks are causing to a country that ships more than 90% of its agricultural exports by sea. Agricultural products represent the largest proportion of Ukraine's total exports.
The disruption could lead to a grain storage capacity deficit of 11 million tons, the Ministry of Agriculture reported.
Earlier this month, Vysotskyi noted that losses for the agricultural sector resulting from the port blockade could reach $3 billion.
The ministry's forecast was generally in line with estimates from APK-Inform analysts, who on Monday reduced their export projection by 8.6% to 39.4 million tons due to shipping disruptions.
The consultancy noted in a report that it had cut its export forecasts for wheat, corn, and barley. The estimate includes 13.5 million tons of wheat, 24 million tons of corn, and 1.5 million tons of barley, it specified.
